I’d like to take a look at who is still standing as we enter the final week of Lost and look forward to the next to last episode, “What they Died For.”.

Who will Live?

Who will Die?

Who will Live forever?!?!

Jack – The everyman in every sense of the word.

Jack embodies our best and very often our worst.  If Jack was to die we would lose our connection to the story.  He is not always the narrator or voice of the tale, but he is the most human.  Will he be the final replacement for Jacob?  It seems a little too pat and dry to me.  Everything points to Jack being the new protector, and I’ve learned from years of this show, that you can not trust these writers or producers to take the obvious or easy way out.  I would say that the chances of Jack being the replacement are slim to none, but the chance of him sacrificing himself at the last moment to save the remaining Castaways are pretty good (3:1) because he has been looking for absolution since the first frame of the show. Jack being the immortal replacement…  5:1.

Sawyer – The conman who is simultaneously on the road to redemption and the bumpy road to revenge.

Sawyer may not want redemption.  It might have been Kate’s influence that put him on the less traveled redemption road in the first place. Take Kate out of the mix and his need for revenge might overpower his desire for redemption.  He is the most likely to be manipulated into ending the lives of a few more castaways.  In the heat of the moment, Sawyer has been known to cross over to the Dark side.  Sawyer’s death is very likely in my opinion.  I foresee Sawyer committing some sort of atrocity and in the midst of his self-loathing he will end his own life to save the remaining castaways. (Dead?…  even odds / Sawyer being the immortal replacement? Not a chance in the island)

Kate – America’s Sweetheart.

Story-wise, Kate has been treated like ‘the prize’ since the beginning.  Now we have ‘the source’ as Jacob’s mom called it as well.  Who will get the source and who will get Kate?  Is Kate the second place prize?  So, from a writing stand-point, I think Kate will make it to the end, relatively unscathed.  However, Kate could still be used in the cosmic game of MIB and Jacob.  Even though she is not a candidate, she still has a position of power.  Multiple candidates like, love, and respect her. If Kate dies, it will really be the beginning of the end.  Everything will come unhinged.  More on this below, but it has to do with Claire. (Odds….  I just don’t know.   Kate is like winning three consecutive rounds in the card game Asshole, and getting to make a rule.  Kate makes her own rules and odds)

Hurley – The guy everybody loves.

Hurley was born for this adventure.  He is right where he belongs.  His ‘luck,’ be it good or bad, has led him to this moment in time.  He will be integral to how everything plays out.  Will he survive though?  I don’t know.  When the island no longer needs you, it tends to toss you aside pretty easily.  I think there is a very good chance that Hurley could see all of the souls stuck on the island gathered to thank him for listening as they welcome him to the afterlife.  On the other hand, Hurley is such a fan favorite, that it could be too much for the writers to off Hurley.  I’m on the fence here.  I say 10:1 chance of Hurley dying, but he will be very important to how it plays out.  I do, however think that there is a very good chance that Richard will finally be able to join his wife in the afterlife, leaving Hurley to mediate between the living and deceased island residents for the extended future.  (Dying 10:1, Living forever as the new Richard Alpert mediator EVEN)

MIB/ Flocke / Smokey – The Disney Villain.

His time is done.  He will die.  That is what he wants anyway.

He has had the time to plan this out to the tiniest detail.  I think it will all begin with MIB/ Smokey giving Claire a very serious order.

(Dead?  Even odds)

Richard – The Mediator.

Richard has been afraid of paying for his crime of passion for hundreds of years.  Someone is going to tell him it is all right to let go.

Richard will be allowed to pass on into the afterlife.

(Dead?  Even.  Immortal?  Not for much longer.)

Claire – The crazy one.

Claire lost her marbles.  She’ll need to get them back to survive the coming conflict.  If she regains her senses, there is a good chance of her getting off the island to where she can be reunited with her son.  If she remains crazy, she is a goner.  She is the literal wild card that MIB/Smokey has kept nearby, just in case his well laid plan goes awry.  Which it has!  MIB will let Claire off her leash for the purpose of killing Kate.  Kate is the glue that holds the castaways together.  With Kate gone, I give it ten minutes before they start killing each other. Also, hear me out here; there is a slight chance of Claire living forever. The MIB and Jacob were siblings.  They were perfectly suited to guard each other as they protect the source from the outside world.  Clair and Jack, who have very different worldviews at this point, might be fated to assume those roles for the foreseeable future.  Clair, the yang, could potentially be the new smokey to Jack’s protector Yin.  (Dying 20:1, Eternal Life 5:1)


Miles is perfectly suited as a sacrificial lamb.  I predict that the next time we see him will be in the jungle.  Hurley will see him and walk off to say “Hey dude!  Where have you been?”  At which point, we will discover that he died off camera (EDIT) at some earlier point.  Which is great for Hurley!  Because Miles is perfectly suited to inform Hurley on what is actually going on in the afterlife on the island.  It will be like having a man on the inside of Hell!

(Dead? EVEN. Immortal? No way)

Charles – The Bad Guy?

Charles will stand revealed as working with MIB the whole time.  He will pay for all of his evil ways with his life.

The island will never be his.

(Dead?  Definitely!  Immortal?  Never.)

Desmond – The Saviour?

Desmond has been a man of science, a man of faith, a military man, a lover, a husband, a father, and now a saviour.  He has followed fate blindly and he has attempted to thwart fate.  He has a plan at this point and intends to follow it.  I can’t wait to see how it plays out.  He will survive right up to the end.  He will be reunited with Penny and his son.

(Death? 50:1.  Immortal?  Not the way this character drinks)

Ben – The man that always has a plan.

I think Ben will be one of the last men standing.  He is a survivor.  Will he ultimately pay for all of his conniving ways?  Probably, but I think he is the morally grey character that will indeed live to fight another day.  I think that when the world morphs into the sideways universe, Ben will be one of the few that fully retains his memories of what went before.  He will stand at the center of what is coming.

(Dead 100:1, Immortal? Nahhh.)

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